Holcim Cement Philippines stock price could surge up to P16 and P18

Holcim Cement Philippines this is the future in the year 2019 to 2020, this stock price will surge up to P16 to P18 a maximum of 88.62% up from P9.43.

In the monthly chart MACD crossover has just started! umiinit palang, this will be the hot stocks for 3 months.

My bullish bias according to my technical indicators says “It’s a buy”.

My criteria of buying are:

1) MACD crossover (blue line crossover to red line).

2) A total volume of 85.0674 million shares were traded from January 2019 up to 22 February.

3) Stoch RSI (blue line crossover to red line) pointing up.

4) RSI (higher highs, higher low)

5) PSAR break.

Initial target price: P11.00

Strong breakout price: P12.87

Ceiling price: P14.25

Finish line price: P16.96

Bonus price: P18.00 (This price is according to the report collected from my broker COL financial, valuation was based from Holcim Indonesia valuations).

The Holcim stock price bottom was found at 52 week low (P5.70) for 4 months from October 2018 to January 2019.

On January 2019 the Holcim stock price (code: HLCM) open at P5.80. The price surged high at P8.71 and closed at P8.57. A significant total of 47.114 million shares volume traded.

On February 2019 upon market opening the HLCM stock price rose at 3.27% at P8.85 from the previous closing price of P8.57 last month January.

At current stage the HLCM stock price closed at P9.43 on Friday, 22 February 2019.

The breakout price is at P9.47 according to (fibonacci retracement 0.786) from 52 week low and 52 week high.

Did you know that the breakout point price at P9.47 was the breakout point price on the previous years 2010 and 2011.

20190225_Monthly Chart
Holcim Monthly Chart
As per my data analytics the buy and sell activities, a complete collected data from my broker COL financial. A significant huge buying volume at P9.47, P9.50.

Holcim Buy and Sell (Buyers and Seller – malinaw na buyers are dominated). Buyers are willing to buy sa P9.53

While sellers are selling below P9.50.

Huge buyers than sellers.

HLCM buy and sell
Buyers and Sellers
Holcim Buy (pure buying, no selling) – buying price at P8.40 to P9.50.
HLCM buy
Net buyers
Holcim Seller (pure selling, no buying), manipis. This means buyers dominated. Bull wins.
HLCM net seller
Net sellers
HLCM technical guide
COL Financial technical guide as of 20 February 2019

#HOTSTOCK in the Cement Sector 2019!

Catalyst will be the U.S $300 Million (P15Bn pesos) funding for upgrade of it’s cement plant due to the demand of Build Build Build projects of the Duterte Administration.

Pure Technical Chart, Data Analytics, Catalyst Fundamental Analysis.

Holcim Philippines completes upgrade at La Union cement plant – news from Global cement website, published date 22 February 2019

Holcim completes expansion of La Union plant – news from BusinessWorld online website, published date 22 February 2019

Holcim pouring in $300 million to expand cement capacity – news from Philstar website, published date 22 February 2019

Holcim completes La Union expansion – news from Manila bulletin website, published date 23 February 2019

RSA (Ramon S. Ang) to bid for LafargeHolcim’s stake in PH plant, news from Bilyonaryo website, published date 01 February 2019 “Bloomberg reported that Europe’s biggest cement maker is seeking $2.5 billion for its stake in Holcim Philippines. “While Eagle is doing very well on its own, an acquisition will help increase sales,” said Ang.”

Holcim engages DTI, DPWH on support to Build program – news from Holcim website, published date 07 December 2018.

The government has programmed to spend P910 billion in infrastructure this year and double this amount by 2022 to pave the way for a “golden age of infrastructure.”

Appropriations for infrastructure will breach the P1-trillion mark in 2020 with P1.22 trillion or 5.7 percent of GDP to be spent on roads, bridges, airports and railways next year.

Sa pag gawa ng road and bridges ano ang kailangan? Kailangan ang semento…

That’s why nag upgrade na ng facility si HOLCIM, and kailangan pa ng another funding U.S $300M (P15Bn pesos) for upgrade sa Bulacan and Misamis Oriental manufacturing plants.

The government has programmed to spend P910 billion in infrastructure this year and double this amount by 2022 to pave the way for a “golden age of infrastructure.”

Appropriations for infrastructure will breach the P1-trillion mark in 2020 with P1.22 trillion or 5.7 percent of GDP to be spent on roads, bridges, airports and railways next year. Continue reading the news here Philippine government spending P910Bn pesos on infrastructure this year 2019

Building solutions provider Holcim Philippines, Incorporated assured key government stakeholders of its commitment to the robust building activity in the country as it shared the expansion of its La Union cement plant and new technologies for improved local road construction.

On October 26 2018, Holcim Philippines executives toured officials of the Department of Trade and Industry led by Undersecretary for Consumer Protection Ruth Castelo to its La Union plant and briefed the DTI delegation on the company’s support for the strong construction activity in Northern Luzon. Continue reading the news here Holcim engages DTI, DPWH on support to Build program

Prior to this post, I made already my first forecast about this stock and you can find it here PSE Stock Bagger in Cement Sector for the year 2019 to 2020 – HLCM

You can get the free guides on your investing journey.

  1. Get FREE stock analysis, special reports and brokers’ recommendations!
  2. Get Stock Picks, Target Prices and Buy/Hold/Sell Recommendations!
  3. See all awesome STOCK REPORTS in PinoyInvestor!

Do not waste your time, energy, and effort by finding out which ways are the most useful tools in making money in the Philippine Stock Market.

Featured imaged credit from BW FILE PHOTO.

Copyright © 2019 The God’s Work to Abandoned Son. All rights reserved.

PSE Stock Bagger in Cement Sector for the year 2019 to 2020 – HLCM

$HLCM update 21 February 2019, Holcim completes La Union expansion ahead of schedule.

Holcim Philippines’s early completion of its La Union plant upgrades strengthens its ability to support the development of fast-growing north Luzon.

La Union to increase the annual cement production capacity there by 80% to around 1.8 million tons.

The La Union plant upgrade is part of the first phase of Holcim Philippines’s expansion program. The second phase involves improvements to its Bulacan and Misamis Oriental plants amounting to US$ 300 million to raise the company’s annual cement production capacity by 30% to 13 million metric tons by 2020.

20190221_Holcim completes La Union expansion ahead of schedule_Page_1

20190221_holcim-completes-la-union-expansion-ahead-of-schedule_page_2.jpg

Meanwhile, cement consumption in the Philippines is estimated to have reached ~30Mil MT, while local production is at 26.0Mil MT in 2018.

Cement Demand by 2019: 30 Million MT (Estimated)
Cement Production Supply by 2018: 26 Million MT

Deficit: 4 Million MT

This supply deficit situation is expected to persist in the medium term due to the growing construction activity in the country.

HLCM could be valued at a premium to Holcim Indonesia

HLCM Indonesia: EV / EBITDA P18.4

 

20190208-Cement sector_Page_1.jpg

Potential buyers

Among the major players in the local cement industry, we believe EAGLE is in the best position to bid on HLCM given its healthy balance sheet with a net cash position of Php8.1Bil as of 9M18.

Note however that the company also has some expansions in the next few years that require funding.

A more likely scenario is for EAGLE to bid selectively on HLCM’s facilities in Mindanao, as this would allow the company to accelerate penetration of the VisMin area.

Other potential bidders may include DMC and Phinma, which
have previously shown interest in entering the cement industry. As of writing, only EAGLE’s Chairman and SMC President Ramon Ang has expressed interest in bidding for HLCM.

 

20190208-CEMENT SECTOR

Bodegero : Top 7 Buyers (Buying only 3.613 Million shares volume, a total value of P32Million pesos).

Huge volume buying price at P9.50, and buying average at P8.40 to P9.47.

 

Bodegero: Top 7 Buyers without selling
Bodegero: Top 7 net buyers without selling (Buying only 3.613 Million shares volume)

Tsupitero: Top sellers (No buying activity, Volume 315,300 shares, a total value of P2.757 Million pesos).

Average price selling at P9.00 to P9.57

Tsupitero: Top 12 sellers without buying
Tsupitero: Top 12 net sellers without buying (Selling only volume 315,300 shares)

 

Holcim Philippines, Incorporated Monthly Chart – Uptrend

1 – MACD crossover started

2 – Stochastic RSI (Blue line) crossover started

3 – Huge volume spike from last month (January) a total of 47.11 million shares traded, and the latest volume this month (February 21st ) a total of 37.3 million shares traded.

Uptrend Holcim Monthly Chart as of Feb 21, 2019, MACD crossover + Stock RSI (Blue line) crossover)

Top 20 buyers activities from 17 January to 21 February 2019.

Top 20 Buying (Cross trades)
Top 20 Buying (Cross trades)

 

Top 20 sellers activities from 17 January to 21 February 2019.

Top 18 Selling (Cross trades)

Result:

Despite of huge shares selling activities, the bulls protected the price at P9.50, as shown in the data there are Top 7 Buyers willing to buy at the price range P9.00 to P9.50 (Buying only 3 Million shares volume, a total value of P32 Million pesos) at average buying price P8.40 to P9.50 pesos.

Volume Net Buyers and Net Sellers
Volume Net Buyers and Net Sellers – Buyers Dominated

Initial TP: P16.96

Bonus finish line price: P18.4 (as per COL disclosure HLCM Indonesia, EV / EBITDA)

Copyright © 2019 The God’s Work to Abandoned Son. All rights reserved.